Like Tree1Likes

Four years of oil left

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 43
Share |
  1. #1 Four years of oil left 
    Admin
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Posts
    6,744
    My Mood
    Tired
    Here's an alarming report that came out today. Maybe this is the Real reason why the prices are so high.

    World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists - Independent Online Edition > Sci_Tech

    World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists.

    Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time


    By Daniel Howden
    Published: 14 June 2007

    Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

    BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

    However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.

    According to "peak oil" theory our consumption of oil will catch, then outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will begin to deplete known reserves.

    Colin Campbell, the head of the depletion centre, said: "It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."

    Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil - the cheap and easy to extract stuff - has already come and gone in 2005. Even when you factor in the more difficult to extract heavy oil, deep sea reserves, polar regions and liquid taken from gas, the peak will come as soon as 2011, he says.

    This scenario is flatly denied by BP, whose chief economist Peter Davies has dismissed the arguments of "peak oil" theorists.

    "We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies as from production peaking."

    In recent years the once-considerable gap between demand and supply has narrowed. Last year that gap all but disappeared. The consequences of a shortfall would be immense. If consumption begins to exceed production by even the smallest amount, the price of oil could soar above $100 a barrel. A global recession would follow.

    Jeremy Legget, like Dr Campbell, is a geologist-turned conservationist whose book Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis brought " peak oil" theory to a wider audience. He compares industry and government reluctance to face up to the impending end of oil, to climate change denial.

    "It reminds me of the way no one would listen for years to scientists warning about global warming," he says. "We were predicting things pretty much exactly as they have played out. Then as now we were wondering what it would take to get people to listen."

    In 1999, Britain's oil reserves in the North Sea peaked, but for two years after this became apparent, Mr Leggert claims, it was heresy for anyone in official circles to say so. "Not meeting demand is not an option. In fact, it is an act of treason," he says.

    One thing most oil analysts agree on is that depletion of oil fields follows a predictable bell curve. This has not changed since the Shell geologist M King Hubbert made a mathematical model in 1956 to predict what would happen to US petroleum production. The Hubbert Curveshows that at the beginning production from any oil field rises sharply, then reaches a plateau before falling into a terminal decline. His prediction that US production would peak in 1969 was ridiculed by those who claimed it could increase indefinitely. In the event it peaked in 1970 and has been in decline ever since.

    In the 1970s Chris Skrebowski was a long-term planner for BP. Today he edits the Petroleum Review and is one of a growing number of industry insiders converting to peak theory. "I was extremely sceptical to start with," he now admits. "We have enough capacity coming online for the next two-and-a-half years. After that the situation deteriorates."

    What no one, not even BP, disagrees with is that demand is surging. The rapid growth of China and India matched with the developed world's dependence on oil, mean that a lot more oil will have to come from somewhere. BP's review shows that world demand for oil has grown faster in the past five years than in the second half of the 1990s. Today we consume an average of 85 million barrels daily. According to the most conservative estimates from the International Energy Agency that figure will rise to 113 million barrels by 2030.

    Two-thirds of the world's oil reserves lie in the Middle East and increasing demand will have to be met with massive increases in supply from this region.

    BP's Statistical Review is the most widely used estimate of world oil reserves but as Dr Campbell points out it is only a summary of highly political estimates supplied by governments and oil companies.

    As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game."

    A survey of the four countries with the biggest reported reserves - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait - reveals major concerns. In Kuwait last year, a journalist found documents suggesting the country's real reserves were half of what was reported. Iran this year became the first major oil producer to introduce oil rationing - an indication of the administration's view on which way oil reserves are going.

    Sadad al-Huseini knows more about Saudi Arabia's oil reserves than perhaps anyone else. He retired as chief executive of the kingdom's oil corporation two years ago, and his view on how much Saudi production can be increased is sobering. "The problem is that you go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 84.5 million in 2004. You're leaping by two to three million [barrels a day]" each year, he told The New York Times. "That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years. It can't be done indefinitely."

    The importance of black gold

    * A reduction of as little as 10 to 15 per cent could cripple oil-dependent industrial economies. In the 1970s, a reduction of just 5 per cent caused a price increase of more than 400 per cent.

    * Most farming equipment is either built in oil-powered plants or uses diesel as fuel. Nearly all pesticides and many fertilisers are made from oil.

    * Most plastics, used in everything from computers and mobile phones to pipelines, clothing and carpets, are made from oil-based substances.

    * Manufacturing requires huge amounts of fossil fuels. The construction of a single car in the US requires, on average, at least 20 barrels of oil.

    * Most renewable energy equipment requires large amounts of oil to produce.

    * Metal production - particularly aluminium - cosmetics, hair dye, ink and many common painkillers all rely on oil.

    Alternative sources of power

    Coal

    There are still an estimated 909 billion tonnes of proven coal reserves worldwide, enough to last at least 155 years. But coal is a fossil fuel and a dirty energy source that will only add to global warming.

    Natural gas

    The natural gas fields in Siberia, Alaska and the Middle East should last 20 years longer than the world's oil reserves but, although cleaner than oil, natural gas is still a fossil fuel that emits pollutants. It is also expensive to extract and transport as it has to be liquefied.

    Hydrogen fuel cells

    Hydrogen fuel cells would provide us with a permanent, renewable, clean energy source as they combine hydrogen and oxygen chemically to produce electricity, water and heat. The difficulty, however, is that there isn't enough hydrogen to go round and the few clean ways of producing it are expensive.

    Biofuels

    Ethanol from corn and maize has become a popular alternative to oil. However, studies suggest ethanol production has a negative effect on energy investment and the environment because of the space required to grow what we need.

    Renewable energy

    Oil-dependent nations are turning to renewable energy sources such as hydroelectric, solar and wind power to provide an alternative to oil but the likelihood of renewable sources providing enough energy is slim.

    Nuclear

    Fears of the world's uranium supply running out have been allayed by improved reactors and the possibility of using thorium as a nuclear fuel. But an increase in the number of reactors across the globe would increase the chance of a disaster and the risk of dangerous substances getting into the hands of terrorists.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    Super Moderator Negative Creep's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    17,018
    My Mood
    Paranoid
    Excellent news... at least once the oil runs dry, we won't be forced into paying nearly $4 a gallon for stinkin' gas.

    The next car that I buy will probably be a hybrid, anyway... screw these outrageous oil prices!!!

    JASON X!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    sgp
    sgp is offline
    Retired Moderator
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    PETCO Park
    Age
    31
    Posts
    903
    someone told me that there were a bunch of people who invented a vehicle that ran off no oil, and i dont remember, maybe less gas, or some other type of fuel, but to keep it from coming out and losing all their money, all the dealers paid them a hefty sum for the patent. dont know if its true or not, but sounds like something the car peoples would do

    And so ends the dynasty that once was Socom-2.com
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    Full Member dansdarkside's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Grafenwöhr Germany, originally from NY
    Posts
    1,359
    In South America they have cars that run off of vegetable oil.


    I am the stone that the builder refused.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    Admin
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Posts
    6,744
    My Mood
    Tired
    In Brazil , 90% of the country runs off of Sugar Cane (turned into ethanol) . They started doing this in the 1970's. Why couldnt we of had the brains to do that? oh, thats right... our government's been invested and brainwashed by the oil companies for decades.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    Senior Member TheFightin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    2,838
    My Mood
    Sneaky
    Quote Originally Posted by dansdarkside View Post
    In South America they have cars that run off of vegetable oil.
    There's a lady that lives about two blocks away from me that has a Vegetable oil powered VW Jetta, and from the looks of it I'd say it's about an 01. Her husband also has a Vegetable Oil powered Chevy Van from the 80s. They get the Vegetable Oil from the Chinese restaurant down the road. I talked the lady before and she said something about the oil being cleaner because of the food the restaurant makes.
    PCs are the epitome of capitalism: elitism, expensive, exclusive.
    Wait, no that belongs to consoles. Ignorant people getting scammed into buying terrible devices that can't even play games in 1080p/60fps
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    Senior Member RickTheRipper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    nowhere special
    Age
    29
    Posts
    1,220
    Four more years of insane gas prices? YAY!

    But what happens after that? Will people have to start walking?! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
    I am the original baby seal clubber!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    4,535
    So that gives the government four years to come up with another way to suck money from people. Sounds like we have a promising future.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #9  
    Full Member Chimaira's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Colorado Rocky Mountain High
    Age
    29
    Posts
    942
    wow, if we invented a car that ran on bullsh*t, we may be able to get something going here, seeing thats all our governments are good for nowadays.

    1 more year until we find out we only have 9 months of oil reserves left.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #10  
    Head Graphics Staff Magnum Force's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Los Gatos, CA
    Age
    27
    Posts
    13,179
    My Mood
    PatBizzle
    I honestly don't believe that it's going to be in four years. Why would they release this information so close to it being a reality? That's like telling someone they are going to die of cancer in 2 weeks after the doctor knew he had it for 5 years and never told the patient.

    If it is true, then I'm going to use as much gas as possible in my big gas-guzzling truck. Screw hybrids and screw environmentalists. I wouldn't mind having a car that ran off of corn oil though. Because I love corn and that would be awesome if everyone had their own little crop of corn in their backyard. Yum yumm.


    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Photobucket | Dribbble | Portfolio
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #11  
    Admin
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Posts
    6,744
    My Mood
    Tired
    Just like with Aliens and other things of this nature, they like to keep it hush-hush to prevent public panic.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #12  
    Senior Member RickTheRipper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    nowhere special
    Age
    29
    Posts
    1,220
    The government should have a huge press meeting where they tell all their dirty little secrets.

    That aliens really did come here.

    That they didn't land on the moon.

    That Elvis is alive in an underground bunker.

    Who really killed JFK.

    And other things like that just to see what happens. Immediately after the meeting, they go into space for a month and see what we do.

    Pillage and rape? Or say "Oh, that's interesting" and go back to normal life.
    I am the original baby seal clubber!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #13  
    Full Member Prison Fight's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Old bridge, New Jersey
    Age
    27
    Posts
    663
    It doesn't really matter, because we're going to do what we can to make a quick and convenient and taxable way to fix the problem. Maybe vegetable oil, but how fast do those cars go? Not as fast as a Chevy Camaro running on the remains of dead dinosaurs, most likely.

    I honestly think it's all the useless SUVs and Hummers we drive that are dwindling the supply. Regular sedans go for 30-35 mpg. SUVs go for 20 mpg, and it's 15 mpg for a Hummer. And like idiots, we keep buying them. I honestly believe that gas prices should be $5-6 a gallon in the states...simply so people stop buying these crappy, gas guzzling cars and buy something efficient. Because once you hit people's wallets, they finally start to care.

    Good thing petroleum and most oil is on its way out of our lives. Vaseline sucks anyway.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #14  
    Writer Pvt.Dirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    North Dakota
    Age
    27
    Posts
    4,838
    My Mood
    Cool
    If this is true then what are sports like Nascar going to do? Everyone wants to see them go faster, now they're going to end up on veg oil and run half of what they run now.
    Quote Originally Posted by LuFeng View Post
    Bell yeah!!!! We are gettin a Cosmo section!!!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #15  
    Head Graphics Staff Magnum Force's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Los Gatos, CA
    Age
    27
    Posts
    13,179
    My Mood
    PatBizzle
    Not to mention that gasoline provides more torque and power to transport goods. It would be pretty difficult to tow a large trailer of heavy materials while running on corn oil.

    And what's wrong with gas-guzzling cars, huh? I have an F250 that gets about 15mpg and it is a great vehicle. Of course, I use my gas wisely, but I still love my car. I'm not going to give it up just because of this problem. It's not the people's fault for buying such vehicles, it's the corporations fault for not putting enough time and effort into making more fuel efficient cars.


    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Photobucket | Dribbble | Portfolio
    Reply With Quote  
     



Share |
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Thread Information
Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users creepin this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)


Four years of oil left